CD Real Sociedad 1–1 Vida: Result & Stats

CD Real Sociedad

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vida

2/23/2020

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 9Estadio Francisco Martínez Durón (Tocoa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

CD Real Sociedad37%

×Draw25%

Vida37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Real SociedadExpected goals in this matchVida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

CD Real Sociedad

1.42

Vida

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 109 away

1.13

creates per match

1.15

1.68

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

CD Real Sociedad

1.13

Vida

1.15

allows per match

CD Real Sociedad

1.68

Vida

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Vida+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Real Sociedad ↓

Vida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CD Real Sociedad or draw

63%

CD Real Sociedad or Vida

75%

Draw or Vida

63%

Winning margin

CD Real Sociedad wins by 2+

17%

Vida wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

CD Real Sociedad 1+ goals

76%

CD Real Sociedad 2+ goals

41%

CD Real Sociedad 3+ goals

17%

Vida 1+ goals

76%

Vida 2+ goals

41%

Vida 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

CD Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

50%

Vida (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

Vida away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Real Sociedad attack 1.13 + Vida defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vida attack 1.15 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CD Real Sociedad scores more

37%

level

25%

Vida scores more

37%

CD Real Sociedad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CD Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff