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CD Real Sociedad vs Génesis — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Real Sociedad
CD Real Sociedad
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Génesis
Génesis
11/30/2023Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - Preliminary Play-offsEstadio Francisco Martínez Durón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Real Sociedad37%
×Draw26%
Génesis37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Real Sociedad
1.34
Génesis
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 64 away

creates per match

CD Real Sociedad
1.13
Génesis
1.02

allows per match

CD Real Sociedad
1.68
Génesis
1.56

finishing

CD Real Sociedad+0.00on par
Génesis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Real Sociedad ↓

Génesis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CD Real Sociedad or draw
63%
CD Real Sociedad or Génesis
74%
Draw or Génesis
63%

Winning margin

CD Real Sociedad wins by 2+
17%
Génesis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

CD Real Sociedad 1+ goals
74%
CD Real Sociedad 2+ goals
39%
CD Real Sociedad 3+ goals
15%
Génesis 1+ goals
74%
Génesis 2+ goals
39%
Génesis 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

CD Real Sociedad (draw refunded)
50%
Génesis (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Real Sociedad at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.68 · 105 matches

Génesis away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.56 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Real Sociedad attack 1.13 + Génesis defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Génesis attack 1.02 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CD Real Sociedad scores more
37%
level
26%
Génesis scores more
37%

CD Real Sociedad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CD Real Sociedad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Real Sociedad 0–0 Génesis

CD Real Sociedad and Génesis drew 0-0 in Liga Nacional on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Martínez Durón in Tocoa.