CD Olimpia 4–0 Victoria: Result & Stats

CD Olimpia

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria

9/18/2021

Liga Nacional · Apertura - 10Estadio Francisco Morazán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

CD Olimpia64%

×Draw21%

Victoria15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchVictoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

0.86

CD Olimpia

1.99

Victoria

0.86

CD Olimpia creates 131% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 95 away

2.13

creates per match

1.07

0.65

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

CD Olimpia

2.13

Victoria

1.07

allows per match

CD Olimpia

0.65

Victoria

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olimpia+0.00on par

Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olimpia ↓

Victoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CD Olimpia or draw

85%

CD Olimpia or Victoria

79%

Draw or Victoria

36%

Winning margin

CD Olimpia wins by 2+

39%

Victoria wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

CD Olimpia 1+ goals

86%

CD Olimpia 2+ goals

59%

CD Olimpia 3+ goals

32%

Victoria 1+ goals

58%

Victoria 2+ goals

21%

Victoria 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)

80%

Victoria (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olimpia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 173 matches

Victoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olimpia attack 2.13 + Victoria defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.99

Victoria attack 1.07 + CD Olimpia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

CD Olimpia scores more

64%

level

21%

Victoria scores more

15%

CD Olimpia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff