CD Olimpia 0–1 CD Motagua: Result & Stats

CD Olimpia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CD Motagua

5/15/2022

Liga Nacional · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Tiburcio Carías Andino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

CD Olimpia50%

×Draw25%

CD Motagua25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchCD Motagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.06

CD Olimpia

1.60

CD Motagua

1.06

CD Olimpia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 174 away

2.13

creates per match

1.48

0.65

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

CD Olimpia

2.13

CD Motagua

1.48

allows per match

CD Olimpia

0.65

CD Motagua

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olimpia+0.00on par

CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olimpia ↓

CD Motagua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CD Olimpia or draw

75%

CD Olimpia or CD Motagua

75%

Draw or CD Motagua

50%

Winning margin

CD Olimpia wins by 2+

26%

CD Motagua wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

CD Olimpia 1+ goals

80%

CD Olimpia 2+ goals

47%

CD Olimpia 3+ goals

22%

CD Motagua 1+ goals

65%

CD Motagua 2+ goals

29%

CD Motagua 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)

66%

CD Motagua (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olimpia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 173 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.07 · 174 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olimpia attack 2.13 + CD Motagua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

CD Motagua attack 1.48 + CD Olimpia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CD Olimpia scores more

50%

level

25%

CD Motagua scores more

25%

CD Olimpia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff