CD Olimpia 1–1 CD Marathon: Result & Stats

CD Olimpia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CD Marathon

1/28/2024

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 2Estadio Municipal Carlos Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 163+ matches

CD Olimpia56%

×Draw24%

CD Marathon20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD OlimpiaExpected goals in this matchCD Marathon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.93

CD Olimpia

1.72

CD Marathon

0.93

CD Olimpia creates 85% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 163 away

2.13

creates per match

1.21

0.65

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

CD Olimpia

2.13

CD Marathon

1.21

allows per match

CD Olimpia

0.65

CD Marathon

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Olimpia+0.00on par

CD Marathon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olimpia ↓

CD Marathon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

CD Olimpia or draw

80%

CD Olimpia or CD Marathon

76%

Draw or CD Marathon

44%

Winning margin

CD Olimpia wins by 2+

31%

CD Marathon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CD Olimpia 1+ goals

82%

CD Olimpia 2+ goals

51%

CD Olimpia 3+ goals

25%

CD Marathon 1+ goals

61%

CD Marathon 2+ goals

24%

CD Marathon 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)

73%

CD Marathon (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olimpia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 173 matches

CD Marathon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.31 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olimpia attack 2.13 + CD Marathon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.72

CD Marathon attack 1.21 + CD Olimpia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CD Olimpia scores more

56%

level

24%

CD Marathon scores more

20%

CD Olimpia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff