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CD Olimpia vs CD Honduras — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Olimpia
CD Olimpiaadvanced
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
CD Honduras
CD Honduras
5/13/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - Semi-finalsEstadio Tiburcio Carías Andino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

CD Olimpia68%
×Draw19%
CD Honduras13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Olimpia
2.17
CD Honduras
0.83

CD Olimpia creates 161% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 88 away

creates per match

CD Olimpia
2.13
CD Honduras
1.01

allows per match

CD Olimpia
0.65
CD Honduras
2.22

finishing

CD Olimpia+0.00on par
CD Honduras+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Olimpia ↓

CD Honduras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

CD Olimpia or draw
87%
CD Olimpia or CD Honduras
81%
Draw or CD Honduras
32%

Winning margin

CD Olimpia wins by 2+
44%
CD Honduras wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CD Olimpia 1+ goals
89%
CD Olimpia 2+ goals
64%
CD Olimpia 3+ goals
36%
CD Honduras 1+ goals
56%
CD Honduras 2+ goals
20%
CD Honduras 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

CD Olimpia (draw refunded)
84%
CD Honduras (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Olimpia at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 173 matches

CD Honduras away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.22 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Olimpia attack 2.13 + CD Honduras defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.17

CD Honduras attack 1.01 + CD Olimpia defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

CD Olimpia scores more
68%
level
19%
CD Honduras scores more
13%

CD Olimpia at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "CD Olimpia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Olimpia 7–0 CD Honduras

CD Olimpia beat CD Honduras 7-0 in Liga Nacional on May 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Tiburcio Carías Andino in Tegucigalpa.