Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CD Motagua vs Platense FC — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Motagua
CD Motagua
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Platense FC
Platense FC
7/29/2018Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 1Estadio Tiburcio Carías Andino (Tegucigalpa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

CD Motagua56%
×Draw22%
Platense FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Motagua
1.88
Platense FC
1.06

CD Motagua creates 77% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 91 away

creates per match

CD Motagua
1.96
Platense FC
1.12

allows per match

CD Motagua
0.99
Platense FC
1.79

finishing

CD Motagua+0.00on par
Platense FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Motagua ↓

Platense FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

CD Motagua or draw
79%
CD Motagua or Platense FC
78%
Draw or Platense FC
44%

Winning margin

CD Motagua wins by 2+
33%
Platense FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CD Motagua 1+ goals
85%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
56%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
29%
Platense FC 1+ goals
65%
Platense FC 2+ goals
29%
Platense FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

CD Motagua (draw refunded)
73%
Platense FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Motagua at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.99 · 173 matches

Platense FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Motagua attack 1.96 + Platense FC defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.88

Platense FC attack 1.12 + CD Motagua defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CD Motagua scores more
56%
level
22%
Platense FC scores more
21%

CD Motagua at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CD Motagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Motagua 1–0 Platense FC

CD Motagua beat Platense FC 1-0 in Liga Nacional on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tiburcio Carías Andino (Tegucigalpa).