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CD Motagua vs CD Honduras — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Motagua
CD Motagua
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
CD Honduras
CD Honduras
11/10/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 18Estadio Tiburcio Carías Andino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

CD Motagua62%
×Draw20%
CD Honduras17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Motagua
2.09
CD Honduras
1.00

CD Motagua creates 109% more chances

Season form · 173 home / 88 away

creates per match

CD Motagua
1.96
CD Honduras
1.01

allows per match

CD Motagua
0.99
CD Honduras
2.22

finishing

CD Motagua+0.00on par
CD Honduras+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Motagua ↓

CD Honduras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

CD Motagua or draw
83%
CD Motagua or CD Honduras
80%
Draw or CD Honduras
38%

Winning margin

CD Motagua wins by 2+
39%
CD Honduras wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Motagua 1+ goals
88%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
62%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
34%
CD Honduras 1+ goals
63%
CD Honduras 2+ goals
26%
CD Honduras 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CD Motagua (draw refunded)
78%
CD Honduras (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Motagua at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.99 · 173 matches

CD Honduras away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.22 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Motagua attack 1.96 + CD Honduras defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.09

CD Honduras attack 1.01 + CD Motagua defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

CD Motagua scores more
62%
level
20%
CD Honduras scores more
17%

CD Motagua at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "CD Motagua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Motagua vs CD Honduras

CD Motagua beat CD Honduras 3-2 in Liga Nacional on November 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Tiburcio Carías Andino in Tegucigalpa.