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CD Marathon vs Victoria — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Marathon
CD Marathon
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Victoria
Victoria
5/6/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - Preliminary Play-offsEstadio Olímpico Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

CD Marathon56%
×Draw23%
Victoria21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Marathon
1.83
Victoria
1.02

CD Marathon creates 79% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 95 away

creates per match

CD Marathon
1.81
Victoria
1.07

allows per match

CD Marathon
0.98
Victoria
1.85

finishing

CD Marathon+0.00on par
Victoria+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Marathon ↓

Victoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CD Marathon or draw
79%
CD Marathon or Victoria
77%
Draw or Victoria
44%

Winning margin

CD Marathon wins by 2+
32%
Victoria wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CD Marathon 1+ goals
84%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
54%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
28%
Victoria 1+ goals
64%
Victoria 2+ goals
27%
Victoria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CD Marathon (draw refunded)
73%
Victoria (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Marathon at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.98 · 164 matches

Victoria away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.85 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Marathon attack 1.81 + Victoria defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.83

Victoria attack 1.07 + CD Marathon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

CD Marathon scores more
56%
level
23%
Victoria scores more
21%

CD Marathon at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Marathon 4–1 Victoria

CD Marathon beat Victoria 4-1 in Liga Nacional on May 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula.