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CD Marathon vs Lobos Upnfm — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Marathon
CD Marathon
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
1/20/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 1Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 150+ matches

CD Marathon57%
×Draw23%
Lobos Upnfm20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Marathon
1.83
Lobos Upnfm
0.98

CD Marathon creates 87% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 150 away

creates per match

CD Marathon
1.81
Lobos Upnfm
0.99

allows per match

CD Marathon
0.98
Lobos Upnfm
1.84

finishing

CD Marathon+0.00on par
Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Marathon ↓

Lobos Upnfm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CD Marathon or draw
80%
CD Marathon or Lobos Upnfm
77%
Draw or Lobos Upnfm
43%

Winning margin

CD Marathon wins by 2+
33%
Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CD Marathon 1+ goals
84%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
54%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
28%
Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
62%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
26%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CD Marathon (draw refunded)
74%
Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Marathon at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.98 · 164 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.84 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Marathon attack 1.81 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.83

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.99 + CD Marathon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CD Marathon scores more
57%
level
23%
Lobos Upnfm scores more
20%

CD Marathon at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Marathon vs Lobos Upnfm

CD Marathon beat Lobos Upnfm 3-1 in Liga Nacional on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal in San Pedro Sula.