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CD Marathon vs Juticalpa — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Marathon
CD Marathon
FT
4 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Juticalpa
Juticalpa
10/6/2018Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 13Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

CD Marathon61%
×Draw22%
Juticalpa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Marathon
1.94
Juticalpa
0.92

CD Marathon creates 111% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 58 away

creates per match

CD Marathon
1.81
Juticalpa
0.86

allows per match

CD Marathon
0.98
Juticalpa
2.07

finishing

CD Marathon+0.00on par
Juticalpa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Marathon ↓

Juticalpa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CD Marathon or draw
83%
CD Marathon or Juticalpa
78%
Draw or Juticalpa
39%

Winning margin

CD Marathon wins by 2+
37%
Juticalpa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Marathon 1+ goals
86%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
58%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
30%
Juticalpa 1+ goals
60%
Juticalpa 2+ goals
23%
Juticalpa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CD Marathon (draw refunded)
78%
Juticalpa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Marathon at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.98 · 164 matches

Juticalpa away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.07 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Marathon attack 1.81 + Juticalpa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.94

Juticalpa attack 0.86 + CD Marathon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

CD Marathon scores more
61%
level
22%
Juticalpa scores more
17%

CD Marathon at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Marathon 4–3 Juticalpa

CD Marathon beat Juticalpa 4-3 in Liga Nacional on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula).