Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CD Marathon vs CD Real Sociedad — Liga Nacional 2018

CD Marathon
CD Marathon
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CD Real Sociedad
CD Real Sociedad
2/17/2024Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 6Estadio Yankel Rosenthal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

CD Marathon60%
×Draw22%
CD Real Sociedad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Marathon
1.89
CD Real Sociedad
0.90

CD Marathon creates 110% more chances

Season form · 164 home / 102 away

creates per match

CD Marathon
1.81
CD Real Sociedad
0.82

allows per match

CD Marathon
0.98
CD Real Sociedad
1.97

finishing

CD Marathon+0.00on par
CD Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Marathon ↓

CD Real Sociedad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

CD Marathon or draw
83%
CD Marathon or CD Real Sociedad
78%
Draw or CD Real Sociedad
40%

Winning margin

CD Marathon wins by 2+
36%
CD Real Sociedad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Marathon 1+ goals
85%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
56%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
29%
CD Real Sociedad 1+ goals
59%
CD Real Sociedad 2+ goals
23%
CD Real Sociedad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CD Marathon (draw refunded)
78%
CD Real Sociedad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Marathon at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.98 · 164 matches

CD Real Sociedad away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.97 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Marathon attack 1.81 + CD Real Sociedad defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.89

CD Real Sociedad attack 0.82 + CD Marathon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

CD Marathon scores more
60%
level
22%
CD Real Sociedad scores more
17%

CD Marathon at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "CD Marathon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: CD Marathon 3–1 CD Real Sociedad

CD Marathon beat CD Real Sociedad 3-1 in Liga Nacional on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal in San Pedro Sula.