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CD Lunda-Sul vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

CD Lunda-Sul
CD Lunda-Sul
FT
3 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
2/14/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 8Estádio das Mangueiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

CD Lunda-Sul46%
×Draw31%
Académica do Lobito23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Lunda-Sul
1.16
Académica do Lobito
0.71

CD Lunda-Sul creates 63% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 100 away

creates per match

CD Lunda-Sul
0.99
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

CD Lunda-Sul
0.74
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

CD Lunda-Sul+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Lunda-Sul ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

CD Lunda-Sul or draw
77%
CD Lunda-Sul or Académica do Lobito
69%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
54%

Winning margin

CD Lunda-Sul wins by 2+
20%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

CD Lunda-Sul 1+ goals
69%
CD Lunda-Sul 2+ goals
32%
CD Lunda-Sul 3+ goals
11%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
51%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
16%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

CD Lunda-Sul (draw refunded)
67%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Lunda-Sul at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.74 · 70 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Lunda-Sul attack 0.99 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + CD Lunda-Sul defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

CD Lunda-Sul scores more
46%
level
31%
Académica do Lobito scores more
23%

CD Lunda-Sul at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CD Lunda-Sul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: CD Lunda-Sul 3–0 Académica do Lobito

CD Lunda-Sul beat Académica do Lobito 3-0 in Girabola on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio das Mangueiras in Saurimo.