CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1–0 Urena SC: Result & Stats

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

FT

1 – 0

Urena SC

3/3/2018

Segunda División · Apertura - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez49%

×Draw24%

Urena SC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Hermanos ColmenarezExpected goals in this matchUrena SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.67

Urena SC

1.17

CD Hermanos Colmenarez creates 43% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 115 away

1.77

creates per match

1.28

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.77

Urena SC

1.28

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.05

Urena SC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Urena SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Urena SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw

73%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Urena SC

76%

Draw or Urena SC

51%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

26%

Urena SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

81%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

50%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

23%

Urena SC 1+ goals

69%

Urena SC 2+ goals

33%

Urena SC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

65%

Urena SC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.05 · 39 matches

Urena SC away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.57 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.77 + Urena SC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.67

Urena SC attack 1.28 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

49%

level

24%

Urena SC scores more

27%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff