CD Hermanos Colmenarez 4–0 Deportivo La Guaira

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo La Guaira

10/7/2022

Primera División · Copa Sudamericana Play-off - 3Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CD Hermanos Colmenarez38%

×Draw26%

Deportivo La Guaira36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CD Hermanos ColmenarezExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.32

Deportivo La Guaira

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 148 away

1.44

creates per match

1.22

1.31

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.44

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez

1.31

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CD Hermanos Colmenarez+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Hermanos Colmenarez ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or draw

64%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez or Deportivo La Guaira

74%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

62%

Winning margin

CD Hermanos Colmenarez wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 1+ goals

73%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 2+ goals

38%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez 3+ goals

15%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

72%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

CD Hermanos Colmenarez (draw refunded)

52%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Hermanos Colmenarez attack 1.44 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + CD Hermanos Colmenarez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CD Hermanos Colmenarez scores more

38%

level

26%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

36%

CD Hermanos Colmenarez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CD Hermanos Colmenarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff