Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

CD Arabe Unido vs Sporting San Miguelito — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

CD Arabe Unido
CD Arabe Unido
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito
10/8/2022Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 14Estadio Armando Dely Valdés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

CD Arabe Unido37%
×Draw31%
Sporting San Miguelito32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Arabe Unido
1.02
Sporting San Miguelito
0.92

CD Arabe Unido creates 11% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 132 away

creates per match

CD Arabe Unido
1.05
Sporting San Miguelito
0.94

allows per match

CD Arabe Unido
0.90
Sporting San Miguelito
0.99

finishing

CD Arabe Unido+0.00on par
Sporting San Miguelito+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Arabe Unido ↓

Sporting San Miguelito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

CD Arabe Unido or draw
68%
CD Arabe Unido or Sporting San Miguelito
69%
Draw or Sporting San Miguelito
63%

Winning margin

CD Arabe Unido wins by 2+
14%
Sporting San Miguelito wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CD Arabe Unido 1+ goals
64%
CD Arabe Unido 2+ goals
27%
CD Arabe Unido 3+ goals
8%
Sporting San Miguelito 1+ goals
60%
Sporting San Miguelito 2+ goals
23%
Sporting San Miguelito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CD Arabe Unido (draw refunded)
54%
Sporting San Miguelito (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Arabe Unido at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.90 · 125 matches

Sporting San Miguelito away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.99 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Arabe Unido attack 1.05 + Sporting San Miguelito defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sporting San Miguelito attack 0.94 + CD Arabe Unido defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CD Arabe Unido scores more
37%
level
31%
Sporting San Miguelito scores more
32%

CD Arabe Unido at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CD Arabe Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Arabe Unido vs Sporting San Miguelito

CD Arabe Unido and Sporting San Miguelito drew 1-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Armando Dely Valdés in Colón.