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Cazalegas vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Cazalegas
Cazalegas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
12/3/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 13Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cazalegas33%
×Draw28%
Quintanar del Rey38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cazalegas
1.11
Quintanar del Rey
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 94 away

creates per match

Cazalegas
1.29
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Cazalegas
1.20
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Cazalegas+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cazalegas ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Cazalegas or draw
62%
Cazalegas or Quintanar del Rey
72%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
67%

Winning margin

Cazalegas wins by 2+
13%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cazalegas 1+ goals
67%
Cazalegas 2+ goals
30%
Cazalegas 3+ goals
10%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
70%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
34%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cazalegas (draw refunded)
47%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cazalegas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 51 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cazalegas attack 1.29 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.11

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Cazalegas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cazalegas scores more
33%
level
28%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
38%

Quintanar del Rey at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Quintanar del Rey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Cazalegas 2–1 Quintanar del Rey

Cazalegas beat Quintanar del Rey 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación in Cazalegas.