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Cayón vs Tropezón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tropezón
Tropezón
4/9/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cayón46%
×Draw24%
Tropezón30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
1.64
Tropezón
1.27

Cayón creates 29% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 94 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.18
Tropezón
1.55

allows per match

Cayón
0.98
Tropezón
1.09

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Tropezón+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Tropezón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
70%
Cayón or Tropezón
76%
Draw or Tropezón
54%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
24%
Tropezón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
81%
Cayón 2+ goals
49%
Cayón 3+ goals
23%
Tropezón 1+ goals
72%
Tropezón 2+ goals
36%
Tropezón 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
61%
Tropezón (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Tropezón away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Tropezón defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.64

Tropezón attack 1.55 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cayón scores more
46%
level
24%
Tropezón scores more
30%

Cayón at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cayón vs Tropezón

Cayón beat Tropezón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.