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Cayón vs Siete Villas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Siete Villas
Siete Villas
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cayón55%
×Draw24%
Siete Villas21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
1.73
Siete Villas
0.98

Cayón creates 77% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 91 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.18
Siete Villas
0.99

allows per match

Cayón
0.98
Siete Villas
1.27

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Siete Villas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
79%
Cayón or Siete Villas
76%
Draw or Siete Villas
45%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
30%
Siete Villas wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
82%
Cayón 2+ goals
52%
Cayón 3+ goals
25%
Siete Villas 1+ goals
62%
Siete Villas 2+ goals
26%
Siete Villas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
72%
Siete Villas (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.73

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cayón scores more
55%
level
24%
Siete Villas scores more
21%

Cayón at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 2–0 Siete Villas

Cayón beat Siete Villas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.