Cayón 1–1 Revilla: Result & Stats

Cayón

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Revilla

10/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cayón59%

×Draw22%

Revilla19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CayónExpected goals in this matchRevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.01

Cayón

1.95

Revilla

1.01

Cayón creates 93% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 81 away

2.18

creates per match

1.04

0.98

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Cayón

2.18

Revilla

1.04

allows per match

Cayón

0.98

Revilla

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par

Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Revilla →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Cayón or draw

81%

Cayón or Revilla

78%

Draw or Revilla

41%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+

35%

Revilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals

86%

Cayón 2+ goals

58%

Cayón 3+ goals

31%

Revilla 1+ goals

64%

Revilla 2+ goals

27%

Revilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)

76%

Revilla (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.95

Revilla attack 1.04 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Cayón scores more

59%

level

22%

Revilla scores more

19%

Cayón at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 1–1 Revilla

Cayón and Revilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.

Cayón vs Revilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 1–1 Revilla