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Cayón vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Cayón
Cayón
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio Fernando Astobiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Cayón50%
×Draw23%
Atlético Albericia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cayón
1.81
Atlético Albericia
1.27

Cayón creates 43% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 108 away

creates per match

Cayón
2.18
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Cayón
0.98
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Cayón+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cayón ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Cayón or draw
73%
Cayón or Atlético Albericia
77%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
50%

Winning margin

Cayón wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cayón 1+ goals
84%
Cayón 2+ goals
54%
Cayón 3+ goals
27%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
72%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cayón (draw refunded)
65%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cayón at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cayón attack 2.18 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Cayón defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Cayón scores more
50%
level
23%
Atlético Albericia scores more
27%

Cayón at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cayón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Cayón 3–2 Atlético Albericia

Cayón beat Atlético Albericia 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Astobiza in Sarón, Santa María de Cayón.