Cavalier 0–1 Portmore United: Result & Stats

Cavalier

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portmore United

3/18/2024

Premier League · Round 23Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Cavalier41%

×Draw28%

Portmore United31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CavalierExpected goals in this matchPortmore United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.08

Cavalier

1.28

Portmore United

1.08

Cavalier creates 19% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 96 away

1.66

creates per match

1.21

0.96

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Cavalier

1.66

Portmore United

1.21

allows per match

Cavalier

0.96

Portmore United

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par

Portmore United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Portmore United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw

69%

Cavalier or Portmore United

72%

Draw or Portmore United

59%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+

18%

Portmore United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals

72%

Cavalier 2+ goals

37%

Cavalier 3+ goals

14%

Portmore United 1+ goals

66%

Portmore United 2+ goals

29%

Portmore United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)

57%

Portmore United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Portmore United away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.90 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Portmore United defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.28

Portmore United attack 1.21 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cavalier scores more

41%

level

28%

Portmore United scores more

31%

Cavalier at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff