Cavalier 1–1 Humble Lions: Result & Stats

Cavalier

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Humble Lions

12/10/2019

Premier League · Round 16Stadium East

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Cavalier52%

×Draw25%

Humble Lions23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CavalierExpected goals in this matchHumble Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.95

Cavalier

1.58

Humble Lions

0.95

Cavalier creates 66% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 74 away

1.66

creates per match

0.95

0.96

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Cavalier

1.66

Humble Lions

0.95

allows per match

Cavalier

0.96

Humble Lions

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cavalier+0.00on par

Humble Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cavalier ↓

Humble Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cavalier or draw

77%

Cavalier or Humble Lions

75%

Draw or Humble Lions

48%

Winning margin

Cavalier wins by 2+

27%

Humble Lions wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cavalier 1+ goals

79%

Cavalier 2+ goals

47%

Cavalier 3+ goals

21%

Humble Lions 1+ goals

61%

Humble Lions 2+ goals

25%

Humble Lions 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cavalier (draw refunded)

70%

Humble Lions (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cavalier at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.96 · 101 matches

Humble Lions away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.51 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cavalier attack 1.66 + Humble Lions defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Humble Lions attack 0.95 + Cavalier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cavalier scores more

52%

level

25%

Humble Lions scores more

23%

Cavalier at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cavalier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff