Caudal 2–2 San Martín: Result & Stats

Caudal

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Martín

11/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Caudal54%

×Draw24%

San Martín21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaudalExpected goals in this matchSan Martín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.96

Caudal

1.69

San Martín

0.96

Caudal creates 76% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 78 away

1.82

creates per match

1.12

0.79

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Caudal

1.82

San Martín

1.12

allows per match

Caudal

0.79

San Martín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par

San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

San Martín →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Caudal or draw

79%

Caudal or San Martín

76%

Draw or San Martín

46%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+

30%

San Martín wins by 2+

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals

82%

Caudal 2+ goals

50%

Caudal 3+ goals

24%

San Martín 1+ goals

62%

San Martín 2+ goals

25%

San Martín 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)

72%

San Martín (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

San Martín attack 1.12 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Caudal scores more

54%

level

24%

San Martín scores more

21%

Caudal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff