Caudal 3–2 Lenense: Result & Stats

Caudal

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Lenense

2/10/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Caudal61%

×Draw23%

Lenense16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaudalExpected goals in this matchLenense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.78

Caudal

1.77

Lenense

0.78

Caudal creates 127% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 96 away

1.82

creates per match

0.76

0.79

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Caudal

1.82

Lenense

0.76

allows per match

Caudal

0.79

Lenense

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par

Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Lenense →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Caudal or draw

84%

Caudal or Lenense

77%

Draw or Lenense

39%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+

35%

Lenense wins by 2+

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals

83%

Caudal 2+ goals

53%

Caudal 3+ goals

26%

Lenense 1+ goals

54%

Lenense 2+ goals

18%

Lenense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)

79%

Lenense (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.77

Lenense attack 0.76 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Caudal scores more

61%

level

23%

Lenense scores more

16%

Caudal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff