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Caudal vs Lealtad — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Caudal
Caudal
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lealtad
Lealtad
12/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Caudal41%
×Draw27%
Lealtad31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caudal
1.31
Lealtad
1.10

Caudal creates 19% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 82 away

creates per match

Caudal
1.82
Lealtad
1.41

allows per match

Caudal
0.79
Lealtad
0.79

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par
Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Lealtad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Caudal or draw
69%
Caudal or Lealtad
73%
Draw or Lealtad
59%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+
19%
Lealtad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals
73%
Caudal 2+ goals
38%
Caudal 3+ goals
14%
Lealtad 1+ goals
67%
Lealtad 2+ goals
30%
Lealtad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)
57%
Lealtad (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Lealtad defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lealtad attack 1.41 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Caudal scores more
41%
level
27%
Lealtad scores more
31%

Caudal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Caudal 0–0 Lealtad

Caudal and Lealtad drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña in Mieres del Camino.