Caudal 0–0 Gijón Industrial: Result & Stats

Caudal

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gijón Industrial

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Caudal58%

×Draw23%

Gijón Industrial18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaudalExpected goals in this matchGijón Industrial

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.87

Caudal

1.75

Gijón Industrial

0.87

Caudal creates 101% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 80 away

1.82

creates per match

0.95

0.79

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Caudal

1.82

Gijón Industrial

0.95

allows per match

Caudal

0.79

Gijón Industrial

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par

Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Gijón Industrial →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Caudal or draw

82%

Caudal or Gijón Industrial

77%

Draw or Gijón Industrial

42%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+

33%

Gijón Industrial wins by 2+

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals

83%

Caudal 2+ goals

52%

Caudal 3+ goals

25%

Gijón Industrial 1+ goals

58%

Gijón Industrial 2+ goals

22%

Gijón Industrial 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)

76%

Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Caudal scores more

58%

level

23%

Gijón Industrial scores more

18%

Caudal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff