Caudal 1–1 Covadonga: Result & Stats

Caudal

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Covadonga

9/22/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Caudal39%

×Draw26%

Covadonga35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaudalExpected goals in this matchCovadonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.29

Caudal

1.39

Covadonga

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 83 away

1.82

creates per match

1.80

0.79

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Caudal

1.82

Covadonga

1.80

allows per match

Caudal

0.79

Covadonga

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caudal+0.00on par

Covadonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caudal ↓

Covadonga →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Caudal or draw

65%

Caudal or Covadonga

74%

Draw or Covadonga

61%

Winning margin

Caudal wins by 2+

18%

Covadonga wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Caudal 1+ goals

75%

Caudal 2+ goals

40%

Caudal 3+ goals

16%

Covadonga 1+ goals

72%

Covadonga 2+ goals

37%

Covadonga 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Caudal (draw refunded)

53%

Covadonga (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caudal at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.79 · 114 matches

Covadonga away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.96 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caudal attack 1.82 + Covadonga defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.39

Covadonga attack 1.80 + Caudal defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Caudal scores more

39%

level

26%

Covadonga scores more

35%

Caudal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Caudal 1–1 Covadonga

Caudal and Covadonga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña in Mieres del Camino.

Caudal vs Covadonga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Caudal 1–1 Covadonga