Catanzaro 0–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spezia

F. Esposito 18'

12/21/2024

Serie B · Round 18Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Catanzaro45%

×Draw24%

Spezia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.39

Catanzaro

1.69

Spezia

1.39

Catanzaro creates 22% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.59

creates per match

1.63

1.15

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.59

Spezia

1.63

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.15

Spezia

1.78

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.49scores more

Spezia-0.45scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

68%

Catanzaro or Spezia

76%

Draw or Spezia

55%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

23%

Spezia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

82%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

50%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

24%

Spezia 1+ goals

75%

Spezia 2+ goals

40%

Spezia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

58%

Spezia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.15 · 12 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.59 + Spezia defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Spezia attack 1.63 + Catanzaro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Catanzaro scores more

45%

level

24%

Spezia scores more

32%

Catanzaro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Esposito

Spezia · F

8.3

Match Events

18'

F. Esposito

42'

Stefano Scognamillo

42'

Przemysław Wiśniewski

46'

A. Matějů← N. Bertola

54'

F. Pittarello← T. Biasci

54'

N. Buso← S. Pontisso

55'

Matias Antonini← S. Scognamillo

60'

Pietro IemmelloPenalty cancelled

67'

G. Aurelio← A. Reca

67'

E. Soleri← D. Falcinelli

75'

F. Cassata← D. Degli Innocenti

77'

Jacopo Petriccione

80'

D. Seck← M. Compagnon

86'

A. Čolak← F. Esposito

88'

A. La Mantia← T. Cassandro

90'

Salvatore Esposito

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroSpezia

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots15

6Corners6

14Fouls19

Shots

15Total Shots15

3On Target3

3Off Target8

9Blocked4

14Inside Box8

1Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

463Total Passes244

372Accurate Passes167

80%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls19

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Serie B: Catanzaro 0–1 Spezia

Spezia beat Catanzaro 1-0 in Serie B on December 21, 2024.

Goals: F. Esposito (18').

Catanzaro controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.

Catanzaro vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Catanzaro 0–1 Spezia