Catanzaro 3–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

M. Pompetti 73'

D. Nikolaou 59' (OG)

T. Biasci 52'

8/30/2023

Serie B · Round 3Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Catanzaro45%

×Draw23%

Spezia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.46

Catanzaro

1.77

Spezia

1.46

Catanzaro creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.64

creates per match

1.71

1.22

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.64

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.22

Spezia

1.90

+0.51scores more than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Catanzaro+0.51scores more

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

68%

Catanzaro or Spezia

77%

Draw or Spezia

55%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

24%

Spezia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

83%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

53%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

26%

Spezia 1+ goals

77%

Spezia 2+ goals

43%

Spezia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

58%

Spezia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.64 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.77

Spezia attack 1.71 + Catanzaro defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Catanzaro scores more

45%

level

23%

Spezia scores more

32%

Catanzaro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Fulignati

Catanzaro · G

7.3

Match Events

29'

Kelvin Amian

31'

Stefano Scognamillo

44'

Filippo Bandinelli

52'

T. Biasci↳ P. Iemmello

59'

D. NikolaouOwn goal

60'

R. Krollis← R. Kouda

60'

S. Żurkowski← F. Bandinelli

62'

A. Oliveri← D. Sounas

64'

F. Esposito← L. Moro

69'

M. Pompetti← S. Pontisso

70'

L. D'Andrea← P. Iemmello

72'

T. Cipot← M. Antonucci

72'

João Moutinho← S. Bastoni

73'

M. Pompetti

78'

A. Donnarumma← T. Biasci

79'

90+5'

90+4'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroSpezia

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots8

6Corners5

15Fouls22

Shots

10Total Shots8

5On Target2

2Off Target3

3Blocked3

3Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

385Total Passes434

289Accurate Passes352

75%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls22

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0