Castro 2–1 Siete Villas: Result & Stats

Castro

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Siete Villas

11/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Campo Riomar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Castro45%

×Draw27%

Siete Villas28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchSiete Villas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.00

Castro

1.35

Siete Villas

1.00

Castro creates 35% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 91 away

1.44

creates per match

0.99

1.01

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Siete Villas

0.99

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Siete Villas

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Siete Villas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Siete Villas →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Castro or draw

72%

Castro or Siete Villas

73%

Draw or Siete Villas

55%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

21%

Siete Villas wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

74%

Castro 2+ goals

39%

Castro 3+ goals

15%

Siete Villas 1+ goals

63%

Siete Villas 2+ goals

26%

Siete Villas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

62%

Siete Villas (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Siete Villas away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Siete Villas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Siete Villas attack 0.99 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Castro scores more

45%

level

27%

Siete Villas scores more

28%

Castro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff