Castro 0–1 Sámano: Result & Stats

Castro

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sámano

1/15/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Estadio Mioño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Castro46%

×Draw26%

Sámano28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchSámano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.05

Castro

1.44

Sámano

1.05

Castro creates 37% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 91 away

1.44

creates per match

1.09

1.01

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Sámano

1.09

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Sámano

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Sámano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Sámano →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Castro or draw

72%

Castro or Sámano

74%

Draw or Sámano

54%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

22%

Sámano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

76%

Castro 2+ goals

42%

Castro 3+ goals

18%

Sámano 1+ goals

65%

Sámano 2+ goals

28%

Sámano 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

63%

Sámano (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Sámano away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.45 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Sámano defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sámano attack 1.09 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Castro scores more

46%

level

26%

Sámano scores more

28%

Castro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff