Castro 0–2 Revilla: Result & Stats

Castro

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Revilla

11/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 9Estadio Mioño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Castro50%

×Draw25%

Revilla24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchRevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.02

Castro

1.58

Revilla

1.02

Castro creates 55% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 81 away

1.44

creates per match

1.04

1.01

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Revilla

1.04

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Revilla

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Revilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Revilla →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Castro or draw

76%

Castro or Revilla

75%

Draw or Revilla

50%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

26%

Revilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

79%

Castro 2+ goals

47%

Castro 3+ goals

21%

Revilla 1+ goals

64%

Revilla 2+ goals

27%

Revilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

67%

Revilla (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Revilla away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.72 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Revilla defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Revilla attack 1.04 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Castro scores more

50%

level

25%

Revilla scores more

24%

Castro at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff