Castro 1–1 Atlético Albericia: Result & Stats

Castro

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atlético Albericia

4/6/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Estadio Mioño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Castro41%

×Draw26%

Atlético Albericia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastroExpected goals in this matchAtlético Albericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.29

Castro

1.44

Atlético Albericia

1.29

Castro creates 12% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 108 away

1.44

creates per match

1.57

1.01

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Castro

1.44

Atlético Albericia

1.57

allows per match

Castro

1.01

Atlético Albericia

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castro+0.00on par

Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castro ↓

Atlético Albericia →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Castro or draw

66%

Castro or Atlético Albericia

74%

Draw or Atlético Albericia

59%

Winning margin

Castro wins by 2+

19%

Atlético Albericia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Castro 1+ goals

76%

Castro 2+ goals

42%

Castro 3+ goals

18%

Atlético Albericia 1+ goals

72%

Atlético Albericia 2+ goals

37%

Atlético Albericia 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Castro (draw refunded)

55%

Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castro at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castro attack 1.44 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Castro defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Castro scores more

41%

level

26%

Atlético Albericia scores more

34%

Castro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff