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Castelldefels vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Castelldefels
Castelldefels
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vilassar Mar
Vilassar Mar
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Castelldefels36%
×Draw29%
Vilassar Mar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Castelldefels
1.11
Vilassar Mar
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 109 away

creates per match

Castelldefels
1.03
Vilassar Mar
0.92

allows per match

Castelldefels
1.24
Vilassar Mar
1.19

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par
Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Vilassar Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw
65%
Castelldefels or Vilassar Mar
71%
Draw or Vilassar Mar
64%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+
15%
Vilassar Mar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals
67%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
30%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
10%
Vilassar Mar 1+ goals
66%
Vilassar Mar 2+ goals
29%
Vilassar Mar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)
51%
Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Castelldefels scores more
36%
level
29%
Vilassar Mar scores more
35%

Castelldefels at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Castelldefels will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Castelldefels vs Vilassar Mar

Vilassar Mar beat Castelldefels 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.