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Čáslav vs Poříčany — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Čáslav
Čáslav
PST
15:00
Poříčany
Poříčany
4/19/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 22Stadion Pod hrádkem (Sportovní areál Vodranty) (Čáslav)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Čáslav64%
×Draw19%
Poříčany17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čáslav
2.39
Poříčany
1.16

Čáslav creates 106% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 26 away

creates per match

Čáslav
2.01
Poříčany
0.92

allows per match

Čáslav
1.39
Poříčany
2.77

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par
Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Poříčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw
83%
Čáslav or Poříčany
81%
Draw or Poříčany
36%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+
42%
Poříčany wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals
91%
Čáslav 2+ goals
69%
Čáslav 3+ goals
42%
Poříčany 1+ goals
69%
Poříčany 2+ goals
32%
Poříčany 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)
79%
Poříčany (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.39

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Čáslav scores more
64%
level
19%
Poříčany scores more
17%

Čáslav at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Čáslav host Poříčany

April 19, 2020: Čáslav take on Poříčany in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Čáslav host Poříčany at Stadion Pod hrádkem (Sportovní areál Vodranty) (Čáslav).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.