Casalarreina 0–0 Peña Balsamaiso: Result & Stats

Casalarreina

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peña Balsamaiso

9/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 3Estadio Municipal El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Casalarreina51%

×Draw23%

Peña Balsamaiso26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CasalarreinaExpected goals in this matchPeña Balsamaiso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.27

Casalarreina

1.86

Peña Balsamaiso

1.27

Casalarreina creates 46% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

1.81

creates per match

0.97

1.58

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Casalarreina

1.81

Peña Balsamaiso

0.97

allows per match

Casalarreina

1.58

Peña Balsamaiso

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw

74%

Casalarreina or Peña Balsamaiso

77%

Draw or Peña Balsamaiso

49%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+

29%

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals

84%

Casalarreina 2+ goals

55%

Casalarreina 3+ goals

28%

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

72%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

36%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)

66%

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.86

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Casalarreina scores more

51%

level

23%

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

26%

Casalarreina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casalarreina vs Peña Balsamaiso

Casalarreina and Peña Balsamaiso drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on September 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Soto in Haro.

Casalarreina vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Casalarreina vs Peña Balsamaiso