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Casalarreina vs Calahorra II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Calahorra II
Calahorra II
1/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Campo de Fútbol El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Casalarreina38%
×Draw24%
Calahorra II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
1.52
Calahorra II
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 90 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
Calahorra II
1.48

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
Calahorra II
1.23

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
Calahorra II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Calahorra II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
62%
Casalarreina or Calahorra II
76%
Draw or Calahorra II
62%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
18%
Calahorra II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
78%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
45%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
20%
Calahorra II 1+ goals
78%
Calahorra II 2+ goals
45%
Calahorra II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
50%
Calahorra II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Calahorra II away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Calahorra II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Calahorra II attack 1.48 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Casalarreina scores more
38%
level
24%
Calahorra II scores more
38%

Casalarreina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casalarreina vs Calahorra II

Casalarreina beat Calahorra II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Soto in Casalarreina.