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Casa Pia vs Famalicao — Primeira Liga 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Famalicao
Famalicao
1/13/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 17Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Casa Pia26%
×Draw27%
Famalicao48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
0.97
Famalicao
1.43

Famalicao creates 47% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
0.92
Famalicao
1.25

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.61
Famalicao
1.02

finishing

Casa Pia+0.26scores more
Famalicao-0.38scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
52%
Casa Pia or Famalicao
73%
Draw or Famalicao
74%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
9%
Famalicao wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
62%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
25%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
7%
Famalicao 1+ goals
76%
Famalicao 2+ goals
42%
Famalicao 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
35%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.92 + Famalicao defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Famalicao attack 1.25 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Casa Pia scores more
26%
level
27%
Famalicao scores more
48%

Famalicao at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Casa Pia 0–2 Famalicao

Famalicao beat Casa Pia 2-0 in Primeira Liga on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.