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Cartigliano vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
PST
13:00
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
4/19/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 36Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano (Cartigliano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cartigliano32%
×Draw25%
Legnago Salus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.30
Legnago Salus
1.54

Legnago Salus creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 48 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
57%
Cartigliano or Legnago Salus
75%
Draw or Legnago Salus
68%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
14%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
73%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
37%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
14%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
79%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
45%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
43%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cartigliano scores more
32%
level
25%
Legnago Salus scores more
43%

Legnago Salus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartigliano face Legnago Salus (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Cartigliano hosting Legnago Salus. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cartigliano host Legnago Salus at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano (Cartigliano).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.