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Cartaya vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Cartaya
Cartaya
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Conil
Conil
10/2/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Cartaya48%
×Draw28%
Conil23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartaya
1.33
Conil
0.83

Cartaya creates 60% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cartaya
1.06
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Cartaya
0.86
Conil
1.60

finishing

Cartaya+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartaya ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Cartaya or draw
77%
Cartaya or Conil
72%
Draw or Conil
52%

Winning margin

Cartaya wins by 2+
23%
Conil wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cartaya 1+ goals
74%
Cartaya 2+ goals
38%
Cartaya 3+ goals
15%
Conil 1+ goals
56%
Conil 2+ goals
20%
Conil 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cartaya (draw refunded)
67%
Conil (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartaya at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.86 · 65 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartaya attack 1.06 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.33

Conil attack 0.81 + Cartaya defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cartaya scores more
48%
level
28%
Conil scores more
23%

Cartaya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Cartaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Cartaya 1–0 Conil

Cartaya beat Conil 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Rodriguez Salvador in Cartaya.