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Carroi vs Penya Encarnada — 1a Divisió 2019

Carroi
Carroi
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Penya Encarnada
Penya Encarnada
11/11/20231a Divisió1a Divisió · Round 8Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Carroi35%
×Draw24%
Penya Encarnada41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carroi
1.45
Penya Encarnada
1.60

Penya Encarnada creates 10% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 62 away

creates per match

Carroi
0.71
Penya Encarnada
0.98

allows per match

Carroi
2.22
Penya Encarnada
2.19

finishing

Carroi+0.00on par
Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carroi ↓

Penya Encarnada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Carroi or draw
59%
Carroi or Penya Encarnada
76%
Draw or Penya Encarnada
65%

Winning margin

Carroi wins by 2+
16%
Penya Encarnada wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Carroi 1+ goals
77%
Carroi 2+ goals
42%
Carroi 3+ goals
18%
Penya Encarnada 1+ goals
80%
Penya Encarnada 2+ goals
47%
Penya Encarnada 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Carroi (draw refunded)
46%
Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carroi at home — creates 0.71, concedes 2.22 · 63 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carroi attack 0.71 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Penya Encarnada attack 0.98 + Carroi defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carroi scores more
35%
level
24%
Penya Encarnada scores more
41%

Penya Encarnada at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Penya Encarnada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carroi vs Penya Encarnada

Penya Encarnada beat Carroi 2-0 in 1a Divisió on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.