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Carroi vs Atlètic Amèrica — Copa Constitució 2019

Carroi
Carroi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlètic Amèrica
Atlètic Amèrica
2/17/2021Copa ConstitucióCopa Constitució · 1st RoundCentre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carroi68%
×Draw19%
Atlètic Amèrica13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carroi
2.25
Atlètic Amèrica
0.88

Carroi creates 156% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Carroi
2.25
Atlètic Amèrica
0.50

allows per match

Carroi
1.25
Atlètic Amèrica
2.25

finishing

Carroi+0.00on par
Atlètic Amèrica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carroi ↓

Atlètic Amèrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Carroi or draw
87%
Carroi or Atlètic Amèrica
81%
Draw or Atlètic Amèrica
32%

Winning margin

Carroi wins by 2+
45%
Atlètic Amèrica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Carroi 1+ goals
89%
Carroi 2+ goals
65%
Carroi 3+ goals
39%
Atlètic Amèrica 1+ goals
59%
Atlètic Amèrica 2+ goals
22%
Atlètic Amèrica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Carroi (draw refunded)
84%
Atlètic Amèrica (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carroi at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Atlètic Amèrica away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carroi attack 2.25 + Atlètic Amèrica defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.25

Atlètic Amèrica attack 0.50 + Carroi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Carroi scores more
68%
level
19%
Atlètic Amèrica scores more
13%

Carroi at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Carroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Constitució: Carroi 2–0 Atlètic Amèrica

Carroi beat Atlètic Amèrica 2-0 in Copa Constitució on February 17, 2021.

The match was played at Centre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1 in Santa Coloma.