Carrick Rangers vs Glentoran — League #408 2026
Glentoran score first in only 22% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Carrick Rangers15%Glentoran65%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Glentoran creates 128% more chances
Season form · 23 home / 29 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Carrick Rangers ↓
Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.13 · 23 matches
Glentoran away — creates 2.34, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Carrick Rangers attack 1.00 + Glentoran defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98
Glentoran attack 2.34 + Carrick Rangers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 65%?"
Glentoran at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 65% does not mean "Glentoran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Carrick Rangers have won 3 in a row
- Carrick Rangers score first in only 33% of matches
- 67% of Carrick Rangers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Top-of-the-table clash — Carrick Rangers 4 vs Glentoran 1
- Glentoran win just 44% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)
- 25% of Carrick Rangers’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Carrick Rangers host Glentoran on Tuesday, 29 December 2026 at 19:45. The match is part of the League #408 2026/2027 season.
Carrick Rangers face Glentoran (League #408)
League #408 returns with Carrick Rangers hosting Glentoran. Match starts December 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Carrick Rangers host Glentoran at Loughview Leisure Arena.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.