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Carrick Rangers vs Bangor — League #408 2026

Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Preview
15:00
Bangor
Bangor
11/28/2026League #408League #408 · Round 18Loughview Leisure Arena
Big match
41%
Bangor
model favours
35%24%41%

Carrick Rangers have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Carrick Rangers35%
×Draw24%
Bangor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carrick Rangers
1.46
Bangor
1.60

Bangor creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 14 away

creates per match

Carrick Rangers
1.00
Bangor
1.07

allows per match

Carrick Rangers
2.13
Bangor
1.93

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw
59%
Carrick Rangers or Bangor
76%
Draw or Bangor
65%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
16%
Bangor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
43%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
18%
Bangor 1+ goals
80%
Bangor 2+ goals
47%
Bangor 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
46%
Bangor (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.13 · 23 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 1.00 + Bangor defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bangor attack 1.07 + Carrick Rangers defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more
35%
level
24%
Bangor scores more
41%

Bangor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bangor have won 3 in a row
  • Bangor score first in only 29% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 71% over 2.5)
  • Carrick Rangers score first in only 33% of matches
  • 71% of Bangor’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Carrick Rangers’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rangers
WWWWL
Bangor
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carrick Rangers face Bangor (League #408)

League #408 returns with Carrick Rangers hosting Bangor. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Carrick Rangers host Bangor at Loughview Leisure Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.