Carolina Core 0–1 Inter Miami II: Result & Stats

Carolina Core

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Inter Miami II

10/6/2024

MLS Next Pro · Round 41Truist Point Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Carolina Core59%

×Draw20%

Inter Miami II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carolina CoreExpected goals in this matchInter Miami II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.24

Carolina Core

2.19

Inter Miami II

1.24

Carolina Core creates 77% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 50 away

1.66

creates per match

0.88

1.59

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Carolina Core

1.66

Inter Miami II

0.88

allows per match

Carolina Core

1.59

Inter Miami II

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carolina Core+0.00on par

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carolina Core ↓

Inter Miami II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Carolina Core or draw

79%

Carolina Core or Inter Miami II

80%

Draw or Inter Miami II

41%

Winning margin

Carolina Core wins by 2+

36%

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Carolina Core 1+ goals

89%

Carolina Core 2+ goals

64%

Carolina Core 3+ goals

37%

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

71%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

35%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Carolina Core (draw refunded)

74%

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carolina Core at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.72 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carolina Core attack 1.66 + Inter Miami II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.19

Inter Miami II attack 0.88 + Carolina Core defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Carolina Core scores more

59%

level

20%

Inter Miami II scores more

21%

Carolina Core at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Carolina Core will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff