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Carolina Core vs Chicago Fire II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Carolina Core
Carolina Core
Preview
23:30
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
7/25/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageTruist Point
44%
Carolina Core
model favours
44%22%34%

Carolina Core score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Carolina Core44%
×Draw22%
Chicago Fire II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carolina Core
1.98
Chicago Fire II
1.72

Carolina Core creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 45 away

creates per match

Carolina Core
1.66
Chicago Fire II
1.84

allows per match

Carolina Core
1.59
Chicago Fire II
2.29

finishing

Carolina Core+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carolina Core ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Carolina Core or draw
66%
Carolina Core or Chicago Fire II
78%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
56%

Winning margin

Carolina Core wins by 2+
25%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Carolina Core 1+ goals
86%
Carolina Core 2+ goals
59%
Carolina Core 3+ goals
31%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
82%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
51%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Carolina Core (draw refunded)
57%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carolina Core at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carolina Core attack 1.66 + Chicago Fire II defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.98

Chicago Fire II attack 1.84 + Carolina Core defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carolina Core scores more
44%
level
22%
Chicago Fire II scores more
34%

Carolina Core at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carolina Core will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chicago Fire II are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Chicago Fire II score first in only 33% of matches
  • 67% of Chicago Fire II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 44% of Carolina Core’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • 41% of Chicago Fire II’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Core
DLWDL
II
WDDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carolina Core face Chicago Fire II (MLS Next Pro)

MLS Next Pro returns with Carolina Core hosting Chicago Fire II. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Carolina Core host Chicago Fire II at Truist Point.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.