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Carmarthen Town vs Cardiff Draconians — League #111 2026

Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
Preview
14:00
Cardiff Draconians
Cardiff Draconians
2/13/2027League #111League #111 · South - 23Richmond Park
44%
Carmarthen Town
model favours
44%24%33%

Carmarthen Town sit 5, Cardiff Draconians 15 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carmarthen Town44%
×Draw24%
Cardiff Draconians33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmarthen Town
1.69
Cardiff Draconians
1.44

Carmarthen Town creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Carmarthen Town
1.70
Cardiff Draconians
1.67

allows per match

Carmarthen Town
1.20
Cardiff Draconians
1.67

finishing

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par
Cardiff Draconians+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmarthen Town ↓

Cardiff Draconians →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Carmarthen Town or draw
67%
Carmarthen Town or Cardiff Draconians
76%
Draw or Cardiff Draconians
56%

Winning margin

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+
23%
Cardiff Draconians wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals
82%
Carmarthen Town 2+ goals
50%
Carmarthen Town 3+ goals
24%
Cardiff Draconians 1+ goals
76%
Cardiff Draconians 2+ goals
42%
Cardiff Draconians 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)
57%
Cardiff Draconians (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmarthen Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Cardiff Draconians away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmarthen Town attack 1.70 + Cardiff Draconians defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cardiff Draconians attack 1.67 + Carmarthen Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Carmarthen Town scores more
44%
level
24%
Cardiff Draconians scores more
33%

Carmarthen Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Town
LWWWW
Draconians
WLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carmarthen Town vs Cardiff Draconians — Match Preview

Carmarthen Town face Cardiff Draconians on February 13, 2027 in this League #111 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Carmarthen Town host Cardiff Draconians at Richmond Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.