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Carmarthen Town vs Caerau (Ely) — League #111 2026

Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
Preview
13:30
Caerau (Ely)
Caerau (Ely)
8/1/2026League #111League #111 · South - 1Richmond Park
Big match
47%
Carmarthen Town
model favours
47%23%30%

Caerau (Ely) score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carmarthen Town47%
×Draw23%
Caerau (Ely)30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmarthen Town
1.80
Caerau (Ely)
1.40

Carmarthen Town creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

creates per match

Carmarthen Town
1.70
Caerau (Ely)
1.60

allows per match

Carmarthen Town
1.20
Caerau (Ely)
1.90

finishing

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par
Caerau (Ely)+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmarthen Town ↓

Caerau (Ely) →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Carmarthen Town or draw
70%
Carmarthen Town or Caerau (Ely)
77%
Draw or Caerau (Ely)
53%

Winning margin

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+
25%
Caerau (Ely) wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals
83%
Carmarthen Town 2+ goals
54%
Carmarthen Town 3+ goals
27%
Caerau (Ely) 1+ goals
75%
Caerau (Ely) 2+ goals
41%
Caerau (Ely) 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)
61%
Caerau (Ely) (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmarthen Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Caerau (Ely) away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmarthen Town attack 1.70 + Caerau (Ely) defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.80

Caerau (Ely) attack 1.60 + Carmarthen Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Carmarthen Town scores more
47%
level
23%
Caerau (Ely) scores more
30%

Carmarthen Town at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWWWW
(Ely)
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Carmarthen Town face Caerau (Ely) (League #111)

League #111 returns with Carmarthen Town hosting Caerau (Ely). Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Carmarthen Town host Caerau (Ely) at Richmond Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.