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Carmarthen Town vs Afan Lido — League #111 2026

Carmarthen Town
Carmarthen Town
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Afan Lido
Afan Lido
N. Daley 90+2'
L. Thomas 75'
A. John 67', 52'
12/18/2021League #111League #111 · South - 18Richmond Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carmarthen Town56%
×Draw22%
Afan Lido22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmarthen Town
1.97
Afan Lido
1.16

Carmarthen Town creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

creates per match

Carmarthen Town
1.70
Afan Lido
1.12

allows per match

Carmarthen Town
1.20
Afan Lido
2.24

finishing

Carmarthen Town+0.00on par
Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmarthen Town ↓

Afan Lido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Carmarthen Town or draw
78%
Carmarthen Town or Afan Lido
78%
Draw or Afan Lido
44%

Winning margin

Carmarthen Town wins by 2+
33%
Afan Lido wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Carmarthen Town 1+ goals
86%
Carmarthen Town 2+ goals
58%
Carmarthen Town 3+ goals
31%
Afan Lido 1+ goals
69%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
32%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Carmarthen Town (draw refunded)
72%
Afan Lido (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmarthen Town at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmarthen Town attack 1.70 + Afan Lido defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.97

Afan Lido attack 1.12 + Carmarthen Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Carmarthen Town scores more
56%
level
22%
Afan Lido scores more
22%

Carmarthen Town at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Carmarthen Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
A. John
67'
A. John
75'
L. Thomas
90+2'
N. Daley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #111: Carmarthen Town 4–0 Afan Lido

Carmarthen Town beat Afan Lido 4-0 in League #111 on December 18, 2021.

Goals: A. John (52', 67'), L. Thomas (75'), N. Daley (90+2').

The match was played at Richmond Park in Caerfyrddin / Carmarthen, Dyfed.